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Trump, Putin, and Ukraine: Could a Deal Leave Kyiv Vulnerable?


Trump’s Strategy for Ukraine: Diplomacy, Sanctions, or Support?

Introduction
U.S. President Donald Trump holds significant sway over the next phase of the Ukraine war. His strategy, which combines diplomacy, sanctions, and military aid, could reshape the conflict’s trajectory. However, questions remain about how he plans to use this influence and whether it will bring peace or prolong the crisis.


Trump’s Diplomatic Approach

During his inaugural address on January 20, Trump vowed to be a “peacemaker” and promised to quickly end the war in Ukraine, a nation heavily reliant on U.S. military aid. However, his transactional approach to diplomacy has sparked fears that he might strike a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin at Ukraine’s expense.

Marie Dumoulin, a former French diplomat at the European Council on Foreign Relations, expressed concerns:
“Trump could reach a deal with Putin and tell Ukraine to accept it or risk losing U.S. support.”

While Trump’s strategy is still taking shape, analysts suggest two potential paths:

  1. Pushing Ukraine into negotiations by withholding military aid, forcing it into a peace deal under unfavorable terms.
  2. Increasing pressure on Russia through sanctions and expanded military assistance to Ukraine.

Challenges in Negotiating with Russia

Both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy have shown openness to negotiations, but their terms remain far apart.

  • Putin’s Demands: Retain occupied Ukrainian territories and limit Ukraine’s military.
  • Ukraine’s Stance: Full restoration of its territories and complete withdrawal of Russian forces.

Zelenskiy, however, has hinted at a willingness to freeze the war along current front lines if NATO membership becomes a possibility.

Trump has also emphasized his rapport with world leaders like Putin and China’s Xi Jinping. Leveraging personal relationships appears to be part of his strategy. Trump stated, “You can’t enter a deal without a relationship and dialogue with the other side.”


Tools at Trump’s Disposal

To bring Russia to the negotiating table, Trump has several tools:

1. Sanctions

Despite Russia’s battlefield losses, analysts believe Putin feels confident in his position. Trump may intensify sanctions to weaken Russia’s economy.

  • Scott Bessent, Trump’s pick for treasury secretary, supported harsher sanctions during his January 16 confirmation hearing.
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned that lifting or increasing sanctions could be part of peace talks.

2. Military Support

Trump could also pressure Russia by bolstering Ukraine’s military capabilities. However, this contradicts his campaign promise to reduce U.S. financial support for Ukraine.

3. Diplomatic Outreach

Oleksandr Motsyk, Ukraine’s former ambassador to the United States, said Ukraine should brace for extensive diplomacy involving both Washington and Moscow. “The U.S. will mediate initial talks before proposing solutions,” Motsyk explained.


What Lies Ahead?

As momentum for peace talks grows, Trump’s decisions will shape the conflict’s future. Will he leverage sanctions and military support to pressure Russia? Or will he pursue a deal that forces Ukraine into difficult compromises?

Marie Dumoulin summarized the stakes:
“Trump must either accept Moscow’s conditions or find ways to change them. Both options come with significant risks.”


Conclusion

The world watches as President Trump navigates a delicate balance between diplomacy, sanctions, and military aid. His choices will not only determine the course of the Ukraine war but also redefine U.S. leadership on the global stage.

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